Noah Lyles wins first Olympic Gold medal: Nothing groundbreaking here, suggesting that a man who has not lost a 200m race since he came third in the last Olympics is going to win the title. However, it was not as cut and dry in my mind as one would think. The continued rise of budding track superstars Erriyon Knighton and Letsile Tebogo, the silver and bronze medalists behind Lyles at this year’s World championships, as well as a return to form of some older favorites, might make this the closest Lyles has been pushed in a major finals since this streak began. Representing the ‘old guard’ are seasoned finalists such as Kenny Bednarek and Aaron Brown, who at this early stage I expect to make yet another final, as well as a return to form of 22′ world 100m champion, Fred Kerley. However, I suspect that they will all be competing for minor places, as Zharnel Hughes and Andre De Grasse are better placed to not only challenge the up and comers, but even Lyles for the podium places. De Grasse is known as one of the most ‘clutch’ performers in the sport, consistently saving his best for the big occasion. Indeed, his current lifetime best time came in the last Olympic 200m final, when he upset Lyles to win Canada’s first 200m men’s title in 96 years. He had a couple off years, but finished the 23′ season on a high, becoming Diamond League champion in Lyles’ absence, beating both Bednarek and Knighton on the way to a 19.76s clocking, his fastest since that Olympic final. Zharnel Hughes is coming off of the season of his life, setting UK records in the 100m and 200m, and securing third and fourth place finishes in both events respectively at the 23′ World championships, and seems primed to go even faster next year. I am predicting a narrow Lyles win over De Grasse, with Tebogo securing the bronze.
Jamaica back on top of the 100m world: As much as I am tipping Lyles for greatness in the 200m, I am not even predicting a medal for the defending World 100m champion in the sport’s blue-riband event. As for the Jamaican I am predicting to win, it’s not even the man who has seemed destined to carry the torch and return Jamaican male sprinting back to the top in Oblique Seville. Instead, I have relative unknown Kishane Thompson to shock the world, much like the last Olympic 100m champion, Lamont Marcel Jacobs of Italy did. The men’s 100m may be one of the hardest track events to call in general, as a plethora of men ran in the 9.8-9.9s range last season. The blanket finish at the world championship finals in 23′ was indicative of this, and this final was lacking a few of the main contenders due to various reasons. Lyles’ winning time of 9.83s was a joint world lead for 2023, but like the 9.80s that Jacobs clocked to win Olympic gold last time out in Tokyo, it was not quite up to the sub 9.8s and below standard that we got spoiled with in the era of Usain Bolt and co. I suspect that this will change next year. A few of the men expecting to be involved have run sub 9.8 before, such as the aforementioned Kerley, Ferdinand Omanyala of Kenya, and Americans Trayvon Brommel, and Christian Coleman, the latter of whom is the 2019 World Champion and the reigning Diamond League champion, lest we forget. However, much like this year, I expect several men to be in the 9.8s, but this time, a handful will break the magical 9.8s barrier and be in direct contention for the gold. I expect Kerley to return to form, and while he may not eclipse his 9.76s clocking from 2021, sub 9.85s is on the cards. Hughes, fresh off his UK record of 9.83s is also a threat to break this barrier, as is the talented Tebogo, although I do not think he is ready for that level of step up just yet. I do think a pair of Jamaicans are however. Seville has been running mid 9.8s for two years now, and during the rounds of the 23′ World Championships, he looked the most impressive, almost ‘jogging’ a 9.86s in the process. To first break through a new barrier, one must be comfortable at the current level, and despite it not quite coming together in major finals (he has however placed 4th twice in a row now, most recently with a 9.88s), he has made running 9.8s look the easiest. After the experiences of these past couple years, I expect Seville to not only run 9.7s, but to do this in the Olympic final itself, perhaps a 9.78s. With all that being said, it is a little shocking even to me that I only have him taking silver, (just ahead of Kerley, Coleman and Hughes in a blanket finish), because I expect Thompson to go even faster. ‘Bigga’ as he is affectionately known, is legendary coach Stephen Francis’ latest project, and bears similarities to another project he once had, Asafa Powell. Thompson is similarly built, tall and muscular, closer to the Usain Bolt build than that of a typical sprinter. He was also a relative unknown at junior level, before being spotted by Francis as having something special. Then, after starting out his senior career with ‘so-so’ times, not even close to sub-10, he had his breakthrough at the 23′ Jamaican national trials. he ran a blistering 9.91s in his heat, and was then pulled from the meet entirely, as Francis stressed that he is injury prone, and that they are trying a new strategy to keep him healthy throughout a whole season for a change. He then did the same thing again at a couple meets over the season, running in the first round and then missing the final. This all built up to a grand finale in September, where he broke 9.9s twice in two weeks, both in Diamond League races. He first ran a new lifetime best of 9.85s, just finishing behind Coleman (9.83s) at the Xiamen Diamond League, which allowed him to qualify for the final in Eugene two weeks later, which was again won by Coleman in 9.83s. He finished 4th in 9.87s, but having performed so admirably in his first season in the ‘big leagues’ he seems able to perform when it counts. He also seemed slightly disappointed by his times, stating he can do better, and is only still 22 years old. Asafa Powell after showing promise, then broke through in a big way to break the then World Record of 9.77s. Unlike Thompson however, he was notorious for not performing under pressure, and thus, if Thompson can shine where Powell could not, I believe he can run 9.77s as soon as next year, and he will do so in the Olympic final.