The 2024 Copa America kicks off later this month in the United States, with the top teams from CONCACAF (North, Central America and the Caribbean) facing off against the usual competitors from CONMEBOL (South America). CONMEBOL is historically the much stronger FIFA confederation, with the CONCACF teams trying to represent the region well and pull off a few upsets. There are four groups of four, with the top two from each advancing to the quarterfinals.
Group A
- Argentina
- Canada
- Peru
- Chile
This group features the defending World and Copa America champions Argentina, as well as fellow South American teams Peru and Chile with Canada rounding the group out. Argentina will win the group without too much fuss, collecting a maximum 9/9 points. As for the runners up, I’m predicting a slight upset for Canada to come second. Their new coach Jesse Marsch is an experienced coach having worked in Europe, even managing Leeds in the English Premier League. He had his work cut out for him after Canada scraped into this tournament with a last chance win against Trinidad and Tobago, after losing to Jamaica in the CONCACAF nations league, which was the initial qualifying path for those teams to the Copa America. His first game in charge saw Canada get humbled 4-0 by a strong Netherlands team after a strong first half showing and a 0-0 halftime score. His second match saw Canada hold superpower France to a 0-0 draw. Now, yes, they may be friendlies and France may not have used players such as Kylian Mbappe till late in the game, but both games against elite opposition are promising, and Canada already showed glimpses of potential against teams stronger than them in the 2022 World Cup. Chile and Peru have two of the oldest squads at the tournament. Chile still retain several players from the squads that won this tournament twice almost a decade ago now, thus, the golden generation has been declining for years, and with no truly standout youth taking over, their results have also declined. Peru, while not being nearly as successful as Chile, can still count this generation as a ‘golden’ one, having made deep runs into the Copa America and ended their World Cup qualifying drought in the past decade. However, just like Chile, they still have a few players (not as many) now approaching 40, and they have been slowly declining. Canada is a young and upcoming team and I believe they can secure results in this group to qualify second behind Argentina. Peru will get the best of Chile to secure third, and relegate the men from Santiago to bottom of the group.
Group B
- Ecuador
- Mexico
- Jamaica
- Venezuela
This group is probably the weakest on paper, with no truly elite team here. This also means that this group is the most open, and I can honestly see any of the 4 with even a small chance of qualifying. However, Venezuela have historically been one of the weaker sides on the continent and that still hasn’t changed, so despite their improved quality I think they will just finish bottom. Ecuador by contrast have some star power, both old and young in their team with players such as Chelsea duo Moises Caicedo and Kendry Paez, and veteran striker and leader Enner Valencia who has several World Cup goals to his name. I expect them to win the group and possibly without defeat as well. Mexico historically are an even better side than Ecuador, but have been declining of late and have definitively lost their #1 spot in CONCACAF to the USA. Despite multiple coaching changes in recent years and many new, young and talented faces, I think they are still not quite up to the level of old. However they will have enough to finish second. Jamaica, known to have been able to frustrate Mexico in the past, have been struck by serious misfortune. They have lost as many as seven key players to injury (or in the case of Leon Bailey, a stand off with the JFF which is a story for another time.) Most of these players regularly start and play in the English Premier League (EPL), as well as talisman Demarai Gray who is an Ex EPL star. If they had a full squad I might have predicted them to produce an upset and qualify second on the back of some 1-0 and 0-0 performances, as they’ve done to better teams than them in the past, but alas I do not think they have enough quality left. They will at least be able to narrowly beat Venezuela which is still an impressive feather in the cap of the program as they ultimately aim to qualify for the 2026 World Cup.
Group C
- Uruguay
- USA
- Panama
- Bolivia
Bolivia, even more so than Venezuela have been historically the weakest team in South America, especially away from the extreme altitude of its capital, La Paz. Despite the overall quality in CONMEBOL being much higher than CONCACAF, I expect them to still finish at the bottom. Panama are a cohesive side and have shown steady improvement of late to consistently be among the best four teams in their region. However they lack the sheer talent of the top two teams in this group. The USA are the best team in CONCACAF, and the gap is widening. They have several players throughout Europe’s top leagues including AC Milan duo Christian Pulisic and Yunus Musah. They will give Uruguay a good run but will ultimately fall short. Uruguay hasn’t suffered from what has plagued Chile and Peru as mentioned earlier, as they have been better at incorporating talented youth with their golden generation that brought them Copa America success and a World Cup semi final in the past decade and a bit. Long time talisman Edinson Cavani has retired from the national team, but the evergreen Luis Suarez is still going. They have several talented young players as well, such as Federico Valverde from Real Madrid, Darwin Nunez from Liverpool, Ronald Araujo from Barcelona andFacundo Pellistri from Manchester United. This quality and know-how should see them topping the group.
Group D
- Brazil
- Colombia
- Paraguay
- Costa Rica
This group is arguably the most straightforward, with the biggest gap between the top two and the bottom two. Perennial powerhouses Brazil are always amongst the favourites to win any tournament they enter, and Colombia after a slight lull after the decline of their own ‘golden generation’, are back playing excellent football and have results such as 5-1 vs the USA and 2-1 vs Germany in the past year. Both teams are levels above the other two and will finish first and second respectively. Paraguay is probably the best of the current ‘weak 3’ CONMEBOL teams, so will beat an aging and declining Costa Rica, but end third. Costa Rica is playing this tournament without legendary goalkeeper Keylor Navas, who at 37 announced his international retirement earlier this week. With that, any chances of them picking up a point in this group were also retired, as like Peru and Chile their golden generation has declined without many successors.
Quarterfinals
QF 1: 1st group A vs 2nd group B (Argentina vs Mexico)
Argentina has been the bane of Mexico’s existence for what seems a lifetime now, continuously halting their progress in World cups. This trend will continue as the defending champions should easily dispatch of the CONCACAF team. This could be a rout like previous encounters, 4-0 or even worse.
QF 2: 1st group B vs 2nd group A (Ecuador vs Canada)
Having already pulled something of an upset by qualifying from their group, Canada’s short fairytale run will end here, losing a close game to Ecuador who just have too much talent and experience for them. This game will be close and I could see it going to penalties.
QF 3: 1st group C vs 2nd group D ( Uruguay vs Colombia)
This will probably be the tie of the round as I think both of these teams are among the top 4 in the entire tournament. However, Uruguay has just a little more edge in terms of talent and experience and thus I am backing them to win in another close game that could also go to penalties.
QF 4: 2nd group C vs 1st group D ( USA vs Brazil)
Just like QF 1, this battle of global footballing royalty vs paltry by comparison CONCACAF royalty will end in a comfortable victory for the favorite. I think the USA will give the Brazilians a better game than the Mexicans give Argentina but will lose handily in the end, I’m going for 3-1.
SF 1: Winner QF1 vs Winner QF2
Argentina will have to work for it vs. a young and gritty team, but will eventually be far too talented for Ecuador and will make yet another major tournament final, continuing Lionel Messi’s stellar international run of late. 2-0 Argentina.
SF 2: Winner QF3 vs Winner QF4
Uruguay will make it hard on Brazil, and there is even a chance this match goes all the way to penalties. However, even without ‘outgoing’ talisman Neymar, their new Talisman Vinicius Jr and his Real Madrid co-stars Endrick and Rodrygo should have enough to see Brazil through to another final, the second Argentina vs Brazil Copa final in a row. Brazil 2-1.
Final: Argentina vs Brazil
In a repeat of the last final in 2021 where Argentina were 1-0 winners, I’m going for the reverse this time and Brazil to pip their fierce rivals to the title by a 1-0 score line. Argentina have been on an imperious run the last few years, but all good things come to an end, and even the great Lionel Messi is not even the player he was two years ago during their World Cup triumph. The youthful Brazilian defense led by world class goalkeeper Alisson of Liverpool will be too tough of a nut to crack.