In part 2, these predictions have changed drastically over the past year, with most of them going back to following the status quo.
110m hurdles: Last year I had a surprise Jamaican 1-2 with Rasheed Broadbell becoming Olympic champion and Hansle Parchment completing his set of Olympic medals with a silver. The seemingly unbeatable American, Grant Holloway, would again be stunned into a lesser medal as he was in the last edition of the games. Alas, it has been a rocky few months for the male Jamaican Sprint hurdlers, as Broadbell has raced sparingly after an unfortunate DQ in the heats at the 2023 worlds, as has Parchment after his world silver. To beat Holloway as both men have in the past, one ideally has to be in sub 13s form, and both set seasons bests in the Jamaican trials at 13.18s and 13.19s. These are decent times, but nothing to set the world ablaze. I believe both will continue to improve and peak at the right time, but just won’t have enough to catch Holloway and instead finish in a Jamaican 2-3 (Broadbell the silver).
400m hurdles men: In September, after seeing the excellent year that British Virgin Islander Kyron McMaster had, I was ready to predict the upset to upset all upsets, and not only have him yet again break up the event’s “big 3” but to win it all. Alas, the status quo has returned this season, and McMaster looks more likely to bring up the rear in the final rather than medal. There are some outside threats, both old and new, such as Jamaican duo Roshawn Clarke and Malik James-King who have both made monumental improvements over the past couple of seasons, as well as new NCAA champion Caleb Dean of the USA, but the “big 3” are that for a reason and are in a class of their own, and will occupy the podium. The only difference this time, will be that the only one of the 3 yet to win a title, American Rai Benjamin, will break his duck and secure gold, with Karsten Warholm of Norway getting silver and Alisson Dos Santos of Brazil securing bronze as he did in Tokyo 2020.
100m hurdles women: After missing the entire 2023 season through injury after a stellar 2022, I was optimistic that Britany Anderson could bounce back this season and rediscover her form. On the bright side, she has returned to competition and got faster with each race, but sadly she could not get back up to speed in time and failed to make the Jamaican squad. After such a horrific injury this was always more of a probability than a possibility, and so she will be back to her best hopefully next season, as this season is now just for getting back on track. It is not all doom and gloom for Jamaica however , as Ackera Nugent, finalist last year in the 100m hurdles, has broken Anderson’s 12.31s national record and was briefly the world leader with a 12.28s clocking at the Jamaican trials. This time was bettered a few hours later at the US trials by Masai Russell who ran a new PB of 12.25s putting her easily within the top 10 fastest performers all time. Nugent and Russell have history from their days on the NCAA circuit, and like then, when Nugent won their head to head duel in the collegiate final despite Russell having a slightly faster PB, Nugent will clinch gold with Russell getting a silver, and I believe the Olympic record of 12.26s will be broken. The woman whose record will be broken, defending champion Jasmine Camacho-Quinn of Puerto Rico, will get the bronze medal. This, despite the emergence of Cyrena Samba-Mayela of France, the new European champion, as well as a host of American and Caribbean athletes that are all capable of sub 12.4s times, making this one of the deepest events of the athletics program.
Boring old Sydney: I had Femke Bol to win this event, but not because of her incredible ability (and she really is incredible) but because it seemed that defending champion and world record Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone wanted to run the 400m flat instead. Bol is the second fastest woman of all time, and when McLaughlin-Levrone isn’t around, she normally wins by a country mile. The only issue here is that she gets a taste of her own medicine when racing against the unbeatable American. Bol has recently joined McLaughlin-Levrone in the once mythical sub 51s club, and therefore I think she will provide her with a little stiff competition, before coming second in a time that may threaten the old world record, as I expect Sydney to lower her own mark once again. Shamier Little, the silver medalist behind Bol last year in her esteemed countrywoman’s absence, failed to make the team this year, as did the woman I had for silver, Andrenette Knight from Jamaica. As a result, last year’s bronze medalist, Rushell Clayton will repeat the trick, as she has only improved since then, and may even break Melaine Walker’s Jamaican record, as she came within a couple tenths of a second at their national trials.