This follow up will be a bit more straightforward, with most of what I predicted from last year staying the same.
Noah Lyles is still mine and most people’s pick for the 200: “Nothing groundbreaking here, suggesting that a man who has not lost a 200m race since he came third in the last Olympics is going to win the title”- is what I said in my predictions last year, and nothing has really changed. Lyles is the overwhelming favourite, having continued his dominant streak throughout 2024 so far. He has not looked as dominant, as Kenny Bednarek did push him to the line in the US trials final, but I still cannot see anyone beating him. That being said, “Kung-Fu Kenny” as Bednarek is known, has convinced me to select him as a medalist over perennial big meet performer Andre De Grasse from Canada, who, while I think will produce his best races of the season in the Olympics, is not in his best form, and he will need to PB to get on the podium, so I have him 4th. Bednarek will get bronze to add to his Tokyo 2021 silver, and Botswanan Lestile Tebogo will give Lyles a slight scare before ultimately taking the silver, up from the bronze I predicted for him last year. I think he is the man best placed to challenge Lyles, and is so talented that he may yet beat him over 200m, but I think it will be too soon.
Jamaica back on top of the 100m world: The only difference in the top 3 here is that I have put Lyles back on the podium in bronze behind Jamaica’s new dynamic duo of Kishane Thompson and Oblique Seville. Otherwise, 2 of the 3 men I predicted to battle it out for bronze have had difficult seasons (Christian Coleman did not even qualify for an individual event, while Zharnel Hughes has had injury problems and is yet to break 10s this season). Fred Kerley on the other hand has rediscovered some of his old form and made the individual US team, but is not quite back to his best, while Lyles continues to improve. His improvement leads me to believe he will finally break 9.8s in the Olympic final, but a 9.79 will only be enough for third as my early shout from last year of a Thompson-Seville 1-2 seems even more likely now, with their impressive performances so far this year. Thompson has run the fastest time in the world since 2022, and has yet to even go all out, while Seville is the 4th fastest man in the world this year, and has already beaten Lyles while easing down at the line and thus has plenty more left in the tank. I actually called Thompson running 9.77s this year, but not ask early and so easily as he did in the Jamaican trials, but in the Olympic final itself. Now I believe he may go as fast as 9.70, with Seville not far behind in 9.75s when taking silver.