Paris 2024 athletics predictions part 4

For the 400m races, my predictions have changed to the point where I now only have 2 out of the 6 medalists I did months ago. This is mainly due to injuries hitting favorites such as Jamaica’s Antonio Watson, or the changing of events such as in the cases of Wayde Van Niekerk and Sydney Mclaughlin-Levrone, who have opted to compete in the 200m and 400m hurdles respectively.

Men’s 400m: 1st: Matthew Hudson-Smith (GB), 2nd: Steven Gardiner (Bahamas), 3rd: Alexander Doom (Belgium), with Gardiner the only constant from my earlier predictions, though I had him as the gold medalist. Hudson smith has been there or thereabout for years, ever since first making the Olympic final in Rio 8 years ago. After narrowly missing out on the world title last year en route to an excellent silver, he seems a man possessed and recently ran a new European record (43.74s) to win the final Diamond League meeting before the Olympics on home soil in London back on July 20, while easing down at the line to boot. Despite Gardiner being one of the fastest men ever, and Alexander Doom having an excellent season, becoming both European champion and world indoor champion, I feel Hudson-Smith will just have too much for them, and run a time in the final that doom just isn’t capable of. Gardiner, on the other hand, while capable of such times, is coming off of an injury hit couple of years, so while I think he has rediscovered some form I do not think he is at his best, and only that will be enough to stop Hudson-Smith this time. This field is incredibly deep, with several men running PBs or approaching the magical sub 44s barrier, while two men, my champion elect mentioned earlier, and Quincy Hall, the US champion and world bronze medalist from last year (43.80s) have gone under it. I think Hall will finish 4th, just ahead of his more esteemed countryman Michael Norman. Spare a thought for Jereem Richards of Trinidad and Tobago and Christopher Morales-Williams of Canada who have both had PB seasons, but I won’t think will be in the mix for a medal. Stranger things have happened however.

Women’s 400m: I predicted Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone to win this event previously, but after she decided to return to her pet event, one would think the woman who has dominated the event the last couple of years would be next up in my picks to win the event. Marileidy Paulino of the Dominican Republic is the reigning Olympic 400m silver medalist , while also being a world silver medalist in 2022 (both behind Bahamian Shaunae Miller-Uibo who has not rediscovered her best form yet due to issues both on and off the track the past couple years), and the defending world champion from last year. The only time since she has taken the number 1 from the Bahamian that she has looked vulnerable is when McLaughlin-Levrone ran sub 49s races in a way that only Paulino seemed to be capable of in recent years. However, this year there are old and new threats stepping up their game. For old threats, firstly there is the 2019 world champion Salwa Eid Naser of Bahrain, who after becoming the third fastest woman ever en route to her world title (48.14s), defeating even Miller-Uibo, was suspended for missing too many drug tests. After returning, she had a relatively low-key season last year, but this year has been getting faster with each race and currently has a SB of 49.66s. A fast time, while not incredible, shows that she may be peaking at the right time and is a dark horse for a lesser medal. The other “old” threats come from the women who finished first and second in the European 400m final in June, Natalia Kaczmarek of Poland and Rhasidat Adeleke of Ireland (the women I had previously had down for 4th and 3rd respectively). Both women had been threatening to run below 49s for the last couple seasons, and while Adeleke has just fallen short of that, running 49.07 when getting European silver, Kaczmarek has now gone below that barrier twice this season, starting with that run that crowned her European champion. The other time she ran it, which now is the new Polish record of 49.80, was when she finished second at the recent London Diamond League meet to Jamaican Nickisha Pryce, who is having a phenomenal season so far. Pryce’s time of 48.57 puts her in the top 10 all time, and is the second time for her as well breaking 49s this season, after first doing it to win the NCAA title and break the Jamaican record, which had stood since 2002. She is the main “new” challenger for Paulino, and after having had a taste of the global stage at last year’s world championships, I think she is ready to upset Paulino and strike gold. I think Paulino will again get the better of Kaczmarek and take silver while the pole will settle for bronze, with all 3 women possibly running well into 48 second territory. Like the men’s race, this field is now incredibly deep, so along with Adeleke and Eid Naser, keep an eye out for Dutchwoman Lieke Klaver, reigning double world bronze medalist Sada Williams from Barbados, and the deep squads of the USA and team GB, who both have 3 women capable of making the final in theory (although there just isn’t enough space for this to happen). If any American or British athlete makes this final, they will probably be in low 49s shape and thus a medal contender.