10th: Brighton. Current position: 8th. Brighton are currently in the midst of their very first taste of intercontinental football, as a result of their excellent 6th place finish last year. This new ground, resulting in extra matches over the second half of the season (continuing on from March to as late as May depending on how far they get), coupled with a relatively thin squad, means I expect them to fall of a bit, but they will have enough quality to secure a top 10 finish.
9th: Wolves. Current position: 10th. Manager Gary O’Neil continues to show that he may have been unfairly fired by Bournemouth on the eve of the season by lifting wolves up to 9th place. They have been very hard to beat, especially on their home turf, Molineux. With a little less quality but no European distractions like Brighton, I expect a respectable 9th place finish.
8th: West ham. Current position: 7th. West Ham are truly an enigma. They are coming off a season having won their first intercontinental trophy, and have been an established top half team for years now, regularly threatening the top 6 along the way. They are the only team to beat Arsenal in their own back yard in the league this season with a 2-0 win, and have topped their Europa League group as they strive to become champions of the competition a step above the Conference league; the title they won last season. However, they have also conceded 5 or more goals multiple times this season, and over two separate months, (October and January) have gone completely winless. I expect them to find their form yet again and go on a somewhat deep Europa league run, while finishing relatively strongly in the league for 7th.
7th: Manchester United. Current position: 6th. After Erik Ten Hag’s first season at the helm, the feel good factor seemed to be back at the club. A first trophy in 6 years was followed by a 3rd place league finish. However, United seem to have regressed to what they have largely been since the retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson over a decade ago. Wildly inconsistent, grinding out results rather than outplaying their opponents like the United of old, and struggling to score goals consistently. They also had the disgrace of finishing bottom of their Champions League group, in which they were favoured to at least finish second and progress. They have enough quality to beat most of the teams in the league, but will buckle when faced with adversity as well as being unable to “punch up” to more talented teams. As a result, I see them finishing outside of the Champions League places and yet another summer of uncertainty.
6th: Newcastle. Current position: 9th. Newcastle’s fourth place finish last season was rewarded with the “group of death” in their first Champions League campaign in two decades. They performed admirably, including a 4-1 win at home to PSG and Kylian Mbappe, but ultimately finished bottom of their group. Such unfamiliar territory as well as a thin squad dealing with an unprecedented injury crisis meant that they fell quite off the pace they had set last season. However with less games to distract them, and with players returning from injury, they should steadily climb back up the table to a respectable 6th.
5th: Aston Villa. Current position: 4th. Unai Emery’s team continues to be a revelation, having ended 2023 with the second most points over the calendar year, only behind reigning champions Manchester City. They have beaten both City and Arsenal at home and were very briefly battling it out at the top of the table. Their home stadium Villa Park has become a fortress and it has largely offset their below average away form. However, with Villa also embarking on a first intercontinental season in many years, the second half of the season will be full of distractions as they look to emulate West Ham and break their trophy drought with a Conference League title come May. This unfamiliar distraction will cause them to slightly falter in the League, as I also expect them to go far and win the Conference League, but they will still have enough to secure 5th, and possible Champions League football.
4th: Spurs. Current position: 5th. The era of “Ange ball” has truly begun at Tottenham. New manager Ange Postecoglu has them playing a fearless if not sometimes reckless brand of football, which has mostly paid dividends. They started off the season hot, even ending a couple match weeks in the fall in first, but since were sent crashing back to earth thanks in part to an injury crisis that has mostly abated now. While they lack the quality to make a late title charge, they do have enough to make a guaranteed Champions League spot, and with the added “bonus” of no distractions as they only have the league left to compete in, they should seal 4th place.
3rd: Arsenal. Current position: 2nd. Arsenal, last season’s runners up, are rounding back into form, having just wrapped up a strong January after a shaky finish to 2023. The addition of Declan Rice to an already strong team should in theory, mean that they should do even better this time around. However, Liverpool were uncharacteristically poor last season during a period of transition, and Arsenal have Champions League football to contend with for the first time in years. They are favoured in their round of 16 tie against Porto, and thus are expected to go relatively far into the competition. This wanted “distraction” and the lack of experience in dealing with it will see them help create a three horse title race, but eventually fall short of the top 2 come early April, finishing in a not too distant third.
2nd: Manchester city. Current position: 3rd. It’s not typically smart to bet against Pep Guardiola and Manchester City. They, of course, are the defending Champions and have conquered Europe and the World over the past year. Missing their best player in Kevin De Bruyne up until January and not missing much of a beat is also an ominous sign. However, they are aiming to achieve things never done before, such as winning the Premier League for a 4th consecutive time, as well as looking to repeat as treble winners. There are questions about their motivation and energy levels, and they have not looked quite as all conquering as they did a year ago. Indeed, they have yet to beat any other top 5 team this season, and of the traditional “big 6” (Arsenal, Man. City, Man. United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs) they have only beaten United. This failure to beat the teams around them may come back to haunt them and result in them falling just short of an unprecedented title defense.
1st: Liverpool. Current position: 1st. Long standing manager Jurgen Klopp recently announced his imminent departure at the end of a season, calling to an end an immensely successful era for the club. They have since responded by winning two games by a combined score of 9-3, and have won 6/7 games in January, with the only game they failed to win being a 1-1 draw with Fulham. This, where they already held a lead in the Carabao Cup Semi final first leg earlier in the month, and thus didn’t have to win the game. Despite a fair share of injuries and competing on all fronts this season, Liverpool’s players seem determined to give Klopp the sendoff he deserves. Unlike many other teams, they have experience in competing on all fronts at a very high level, having come two games short of winning an unprecedented quadruple in 2022. With the glamour of the Champions League being replaced by its little brother, the Europa League, for Liverpool’s four-frontal assault this time around, they may be able to strategically rest more key players during the run in. This along with a continuation of their stellar form may see them reclaim the Premier League title and remain the only team to prevent Manchester City from winning it since 2018.