Predicting the rest of the Top 5 league’s domestic winners

Having already made predictions for the outcome of the Premier League, I will be doing the same for the other 4 leagues that make up the top 5 in Europe. As well as for the domestic cups in all five leagues.

All 4 of the other major leagues are ‘suffering’ from increasingly one horse races this season, there is a 9 point gap with 10 games to go in Spain, a 10 point gap with 9 games to go in Germany, a 10 point gap with 13 games to go in France, and finally, a whopping 16 point gap with 10 games to go in Italy. Compare this to England where 3 teams are separated by 1 point, and you can see the relative lack of intrigue.
These point gaps are by no means insurmountable, especially in France with still so many games to play, but given the strength of the teams in first as well as their cushion at the top, it would take a historical collapse for any of these leading teams to not clinch their respective national titles now. Thus, the champions of Spain, Germany, France and Italy will be Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, PSG and Inter, respectively. Spare a special shout out to Leverkusen, who are STILL yet to lose a game in any competition this season, and are up against juggernauts Bayern Munich, who have sensationally won 11 titles in a row. Even with such incredible form and a sizeable lead at the top, it seems almost silly to call them winners from now. However, in my eyes it has been Leverkusen’s title to lose ever since they beat Bayern 3-0 on February 10th. Since then the team from Munich has only looked even more vulnerable domestically, thus ending the last league I had any doubts about in predicting the eventual winner.

In Spain, the final of their domestic cup competition, the Copa del Rey is already set, with Mallorca set to take on Athletic Bilbao. Mallorca have won this title once, in 2003, while Bilbao are actually the second most successful team in this competition having won it 23 times, 3 more than even Real Madrid and 8 less than Barcelona. Their drought in this competition however, has entered its 40th year, having last won in 1984. They have made the final 6 times since then, including most recently losing  back to back finals in 2020, and 2021. I am backing Bilbao to break this jinx and finally end their long drought.

In France, they are into the semi finals, with Lyon set to face Valenciennes and PSG set to take on Rennes. As much as I would like to select upsets when predicting, I just can’t see it here, and so PSG will win their 15th title, extending their all time lead to 5. In this Qatari bankrolled drive to the top over the last decade plus, PSG have won almost everything in almost every season in France. However, their incredible streak of winning this trophy 6 out of 7 years from 2015-2021 was broken in each of the last 2 seasons, failing to even make the final on both occasions. I expect this to be half of a triumphant trophy double for them (in addition to the league title) in this first season back with Mbappe out of the shadows of the departed Messi and Neymar.

The final 4 in Italy consist of record winners Juventus, relatively out of sorts Lazio, and two teams still competing in international competitions; Atalanta and Fiorentina. Fiorentina are looking to make it to two finals in consecutive years, having made last seasons Coppa Italia final as well as making the Europa Conference league final. They lost both of those last year and this time around will be hoping to exorcise their demons in at least one of the competitions, and I back them to do so in this one, winning their 7th title and first since 2001. The heartbreak for “I Viola” will finally be over.

In England, their main domestic cup competition, the FA cup is still in the quarter finals, with that round set to take place this upcoming weekend. Manchester City and Liverpool are heavy favourites to win, with other typical contenders such as Arsenal and Tottenham already out, and those still in such as Chelsea and Manchester United currently shadows of their former selves. As always, a favourable draw for the semi final will help a potential winner, but I cannot look past the big 2 this time, and seeing how Liverpool seem to have had City’s number in cup competitions in recent years (knocking them out in the 22’ semi final en route to winning for example), I have them winning this again to send manager Jurgen Klopp off in a fairytale fashion.

Last but not least of these domestic cup competitions, the DFB-pokal in Germany, has by far the most fairytale like aura about it this year. Only 1 of the 4 semi finalists are in the top division Bundesliga in Germany, the aforementioned unbeaten Bayer Leverkusen. Kaiserslautern and Fortuna Düsseldorf are in the second tier, while amazingly, giant killers Saarbrücken are in the third tier. Their amazing run has included wins over 3 top division teams, Frankfurt, Borussia Monchengladbach, and most astonishingly, Bayern Munich, in the second round. They have been fortunate to play all their matches at home thus far, and will play their semi final against Kaiserslautern at home as well. In 2020, they made history by becoming the first 4th tier team to make the DFB semi finals, and have only become better since, having been promoted to the third tier, while still showing themselves to be experts at fairytale runs and giant-killing. I expect them to go one better this time and make the final, but without their home stadium this time, I think winning will be one step too far. Alas, with Leverkusen’s sensational form, and penchant to always somehow snatch victory from defeat, even against other minnows punching above their weight as they did with Qarabag FK in the Europa League yesterday, i think they will have too much for the upstarts from the third tier, and clinch this title to complete a domestic cup double. Leverkusen were the team to end Saarbrücken’s story 4 years ago with a 3-0 win, and although maybe not quite as convincing this time, history will repeat itself.