With the world Athletic relays serving as the chief way for nations to qualify their relay teams for the Olympics, (14 teams for each of the 5 relays with 2 spots left to be decided by world ranking via times during the qualifying period from December 31, 2022- June 30, 2024) concluding in May, now is a good time to predict the eventual results in Paris come August. The qualifying period is still a couple weeks from being over, but the countries who have a legitimate shot at medalling who are not yet a lock (such as the Jamaican men 4x400m relay) are currently qualifying by ranking so these predictions will be made under the assumption that they have made it.
For the record in the men’s 4×100 relay, the two teams currently qualifying by time are Brazil and Trinidad and Tobago, with times of 38.19 and 38.30 respectively. The Netherlands have also recorded a time of 38.30, but they appear to be losing one of several tiebreakers to the team from the Twin island republic currently. After the Dutch, the team next in line is Australia with a 38.43 clocking.
Meanwhile, in the men’s 4×400 relay, the two teams currently qualifying by time are Zambia and Jamaica, with times of 2:59.12 and 2:59.34 respectively. The teams closest to them who are on the outside looking in are the Netherlands and Czechia, with times of 3:00.23 and 3:00.99 respectively.
In the 4×100, the defending Olympic champions Italy, and the defending world champions the USA are currently ranked second and first respectively, with times of 37.62 and 37.38, recorded when finishing in the top 2 spots at last year’s World Championships. However, at the World relays, the Italians were disqualified and thus came last in that final. The Americans won in a time of 37.40, with Canada and France taking the minor medals. Places 4-7th were taken by Japan, team GB& N.I, China and Jamaica respectively with Italy after them. There are a couple other dark horse nations such as Nigeria and Ghana who could have an outside shot of making the final, but the top 8 fastest teams by ranking and indeed, the only 8 teams to have broken 38 seconds during the qualifying period are the 8 finalists from the World relays minus China, and South Africa. South Africa had a mishap in their qualifying round and thus didn’t make the final at the World relays, but quickly rectified this in the B final and qualified easily. The final therefore will more than likely be these 8 teams (of course, with some margin for error for mishaps and DQs as there always seems to be in relays). The USA arguably did not even use their strongest team and are strong favorites. Indeed, if all goes well they will probably be racing the clock, however i still think they are at least a couple of tenths of a second away from the world record held by Jamaica even at full strength. The Italians, Canadians and British have upset them in 3 of the last 5 world and Olympic finals however, and thus provides proof that the fastest quartet does not always win. Indeed, apart from their triumphs when anchored by Noah Lyles at the 2019 and 2023 Worlds, the Americans have not won this event at any major global championship since 2007, thanks chiefly to the Usain Bolt led Jamaican teams. However, they seem to have sorted out the baton exchange issues that have plagued them for years, while the 3 aforementioned teams that did manage to pip them at the line when they each won, all seem to have 1 or 2 members of their relay teams not in top form. The USA can afford such issues due to their strength in depth, while the other 3 main challengers tend to rely on a very small pool of around 4-6 men, so if anyone is off form the team suffers rather than having an adequate replacement like the USA does. Outside of these 3 challengers, Jamaica, Japan and South Africa seem to have the best chances of making the podium. Japan consistently are the best drilled squad with the best baton exchanges thus almost eliminating their disadvantages in individual flat out speed, while Jamaica and South Africa have formed young, talented quartets of late led by a star who may well be on the individual podium in Paris (Oblique Seville and Akani Simbine respectively). I think the Americans will win with a blistering 37.18 clocking, with Jamaica led by Seville second in 37.48, and Canada very close behind with a 37.52. The Italians will challenge, but ultimately just miss the podium with a still excellent time.
In the 4×400, things are a little more straightforward. The USA almost always win this event, apart from a rare hiccup such as when the Bahamas won the 2012 Olympic title. Unlike in the 4×100, when there is less margin for error and technical inefficiency can be greatly punished, the 4×400 is more about just who has the fastest 4 athletes. Yes, the race must still be executed properly and the baton has to make it around, but the exchanges aren’t made at such lightning speed with such a tiny handoff window. As a result, the USA and their strength in depth is usually just too much, especially nowadays with the mixed relay and many countries having to re-use their athletes for their respective gender’s relay as well as the mixed. The USA almost always uses completely different teams for each and thus are usually fresher as well as already having the flat speed. As a result, I think they will win, and comfortably too, probably approaching sub 2:57 territory. The minor medals now are where it’s a bit more interesting. The second and third ranked teams both finished in those positions at last year’s world’s, France and then team GB, with times of 2.58.45 and 2:58.71, both over a second slower than the USA’s 2:57.31. However, India, Botswana, Zambia, Jamaica and South Africa have all dipped under 3 minutes and have some standout individuals, while Belgium with a time of 3:00.09 have the new world indoor and European champion, Alexander Doom, who is in the form of his life and cannot be counted out. In fact, Jamaica who came 4th at least year’s worlds are more likely to fall down a couple places at Belgium’s gain, as they had a nightmare showing at world relays, running well over 3:00 and almost coming last in their heat. In fairness they didn’t bring their best team which is another story, and others who were there started their season late. However ace anchor and individual outdoor World champion Antonio Watson does not look to be in the same form as when he shocked the world last year, and thus the Jamaican team simply looks weaker no matter what angle is taken. The Botswana team however is who I have for silver. They won the World relays at the USA’s expense when they, for once made an error in this event and got disqualified. They have the current 3rd and 6th fastest men in the world this year, and not even the USA can boast that. The man in 6th is the double world silver medalist from last year in the 100m and 200m, Letsile Tebogo who can do it all it seems, with a 400m time of 44.29. Indeed, a third member of their quartet is not too far down the rankings with a 44.54 clocking as well. I think the bronze will go to team GB, who currently have the 2nd and 8th fastest men in the world, but do not have as deep a quartet as the Botswana team.
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