The English premier league has returned, and with it, my predictions.
1st) Manchester city:– Even I, one of the most optimistic when it comes to upsets and predictions from left field, just cannot see past City continuing to make a mockery of the world’s most watched football league. There is perhaps a world where, given this is manager Pep Guardiola’s last year under contract that they take their foot off the gas, at least domestically, and focus on the Champions League. I however, think this just means city will be just as ruthless as ever, if not more, given that they clearly have the resources to compete at the highest level on all fronts. Losing Julian Alvarez may yet prove to be detrimental, but new signing Savinho already seems to be settling in nicely.
2nd) Arsenal:- For the third season in a row, Arsenal seem poised to be runners up. There is still time to go in the transfer window and they may yet address their biggest issue, which to me is the need for a striker who will score 20+ goals in a season, but even if they get such a player the best I can see is them winning a trophy NOT named the Premier League. The experience of being in a title race while competing in Europe will do them well, but they will just finish as runner ups with a higher points total, as City seem to be able to pace themselves with their nearest challengers, before inevitably pulling away in the spring.
3rd) Liverpool:- So, the same top 3 as last season, despite Liverpool being the only club in Europe’s top 7 leagues to not make a signing for their first team at the time of writing, and starting a new era under new head coach Arne Slot. They however have retained their squad that finished last year, with those players seemingly retaining their level or improving, as seen by the club’s promising preseason. This, coupled with the fact that the other would be challengers for this spot all having their own issues leads me to think Liverpool will finish a somewhat isolated third.
4th) Tottenham Hotspur:- The last guaranteed Champions League spot will go to a club that will be rewarded for finally having some stability. The manager situation at the club is finally stable, as Ange Postecoglu begins his second season in charge well supported by his club in the transfer market. The acquisition of one of the EPL’s breakout stars from last season, Dominic Solanke from Bournemouth, will do well to help plug the massive gap left by Harry Kane’s departure over a year ago, and this will only improve them from last year in a area in which they struggled at times. They are also better equipped to deal with competing in Europe than some of their direct rivals for this spot.
5th) Manchester United:- It was an odd season for them last season, finishing 8th and having their worst league campaign in decades, but then they went and beat their nearly unstoppable cross city rivals in the FA cup final to make it two seasons, two trophies for manager Erik Ten Hag. He has yet again been healthily backed in the transfer market, but as I have stated in the past, there is a LOT of work to be done to get United back to where they were, and thus while improving on last year’s position, I still think they are quite a way from competing at the top of the league again.
6th) Newcastle United:- After tasting Champions League football for the first time in decades last season, Newcastle’s squad was stretched as thin as could be. They plummeted down the table towards the middle of the season as a result of several injuries and lack of depth. However, once they only had the league to focus on in the final third of the season and players had time to return to full fitness, they thrived and made a late but ultimately failed attempt at the European places. No such distractions for them this season, but with a lack of key signings, I expect them to be a lot more consistent and steady, without showing much overall improvement.
7th) Aston Villa:- Last season’s surprise story, finishing all the way in 4th and securing a historic Champions League birth in the process, Aston villa may suffer a bit from what Newcastle did last year. Their manager Unai Emery is something of a European cup specialist, making deep runs in the various tiers of European competitions of every club he manages, and he may very well do the same this year and set the club from Birmingham on a fairytale run. This however could come with the cost of their league form suffering, but like Newcastle I think they will ultimately have enough quality to finish in 7th.
8th) Chelsea:- As stated in previous articles, and even earlier here when speaking of Tottenham finally showing consistency, I think Chelsea’s continuous lack thereof will hurt them once again. This time last year they were with a new manager whose first task was to incorporate several new signings whilst getting rid of several ‘deadweight’ players, and they find themselves in that exact situation a year on. Contrary to popular belief, I do not think their squad is too large as they have either prepared to sell or sold several players, while bringing in several as well. However, this again means their season will likely follow the same trajectory, with a rough start followed by a strong finish where they climb out of mid table obscurity and threaten the European places. The main difference is that they now have minor European football to contend with, but the Europa Conference League, the third tier of continental competition, should not set them back too greatly in the league, especially when their team is young and talented. IF, and that is a big IF, they finally keep some continuity, next year could be the year they start climbing back up the table and competing for trophies again.
9th) Crystal Palace:- I am usually good for some sort of ‘upset’ or surprise prediction and this is the first of a few I will be making. It is not THAT big of a shock, but even after losing talisman Michael Olise to Bayern Munich, Palace still seem to have the best manager they have ever had in the premier league, and thus it may result in their best finish. They ended last season playing exceptional football, and even with Olise’s constant injuries they managed to find a way. Jean-Phillipe Mateta and Eberechi Eze are more than talented enough to fill in the goals and assists lost by Olise, and I think they will pip the more favored West Ham and Brighton to 9th.
10th) West Ham:- West Ham have become something of a European mainstay over the past few years, winning the Europa Conference League and making deep runs in the Europa League. However, the man who brought them their first trophy in decades, David Moyes, is gone. While I think this change was due, this still places them in something of a transitional stage, especially with big name signings such as Niclas Fullkrug also having to adapt to new surroundings. Their squad is still filled with quality and experience, so I think they will round out the top half.
Spots 11-14 I think could be decided with the toss of a coin, as the EPL mid table is usually a cluster of evenly matched teams who can all go through periods of exceptional form and then follow it with periods of footballing malaise. I think Brighton is the best of these teams, even being yet another team under new management. Then I have another of a ‘shock’ pick in 12th, with Brentford finishing in a somewhat lofty position after a rough couple of years. They have made excellent moves in the transfer market in my opinion, and have one of, if not the best manager outside of the top 8 in Thomas Frank. I think they will cope much better with the Ivan Toney saga finally coming to an end, and will better be able to replace his goals without the cloud of uncertainty over whether he will or won’t play for them looming above their heads. Wolves and Bournemouth round out my mid-table, with both having more quality on the pitch and in the dugout to finish a healthy distance from the relegation battle.
This leads me to the aforementioned relegation battle with my bottom 6. Unlike last season where all 3 promoted teams were promptly relegated right back to the second tier Championship, I think Leicester have enough quality and experience to stay in the division. They still have retained quite a few players from their last season in the Premier League and couple of years ago, and I think that will be enough to see them over the line after a prolonged dog fight near the bottom, ending 15th. Everton and Fulham are two teams that many would probably have had a little higher up the table, as both seemed like solid midtable teams based on form at the end of last season. Whereas now I have them finishing 16th and 17th, as I feel they have not improved as much as other teams around them, and Fulham especially have a habit of flattering to deceive, falling off when they seem poised to make a step forward. They do however have enough quality to stay in the division still, just. This, thanks mainly in chief to what I think will be an excellent signing for them in Emile Smith-Rowe from Arsenal, which could offset the losses of important players, such as Tosin to Chelsea, Palhinha to Bayern Munich and Bobby Decordova-Reid to Leicester. This then leaves me with my relegation picks, as I have the trio of Nottingham Forest, Ipswich town and Southampton tumbling down a division, thus making it 2 of 3 promoted teams going straight back. I think Southampton came back too quickly, like Burnley last season and simply do not have a team or manager ready for the division and will finish bottom. Ipswich are like Luton for me, probably the least talented squad but have a talented and young manager who will get an almighty fight out of his squad, but as with Luton, will just lack the quality and know-how to stay up. Nottingham Forest will finish 18th, after battling with relegation each season since coming up a few years ago, this time will be one battle too many and the struggle will catch up to them.
To finish, I do have one disclaimer. As with last season, there looms the possibility of points deductions for some teams (chiefly Forest, Everton and Leicester) due to Financial fair play breaches in the past. These potential further sanctions have not been decided upon yet, but if there are points decisions, as with last year, this could see Forest, Leicester and Everton all relegated, giving Ipswich and Southampton a chance. The relegated teams however had a lack of quality to make the deductions count for anything last year, and unless the punishments are severe, I think it will be a case of Deja vu, with the relegation zone finishing as predicted. Leicester seem especially doomed to receive a deduction, so that punishment may be dished out any week now. If the Premier League administer a punishment similar or more lenient than those given to Forest and Everton last season, they may still just stay up.