The UEFA Euro 2024 kicks off this Friday, with 24 teams all vying for glory. Italy are the defending champions, and along with beaten finalists England, beaten World Cup finalists France, hosts Germany and 2016 winners Portugal are the favourites. The 4 best third place teams again qualify for the round of 16 as well, meaning some groups will have an * beside their third placed team, denoting who I think will qualify.
Group A
- Germany
- Hungary
- Switzerland*
- Scotland
Germany were having it rough, with an early exit at the 2022 World Cup being followed by some awful form in the early buildup to them hosting the next Euro tournament. However, after a humiliating 4-1 defeat at home to one of the teams that helped knock them out of the World Cup group stages, Japan, they fired well respected coach Hansi Flick. Since his replacement Julian Nagelsmann has come in they have looked much better, with some new talent being incorporated along with seasoned veterans such as Real Madrid’s Toni Kroos who is set to retire after the tournament. This resurgence, plus the ‘host’ factor should see them top the group. In second in a slight upset is Hungary. Switzerland may have more household names and a much better record in recent tournaments, but Hungary topped their qualifying group while Switzerland finished behind Romania in theirs. Hungary also performed admirably in the last Euros when put in the group of death, and have continued to be very difficult to beat since then. Their disciplined defense plus the brilliance of captain Dominik Szoboszlai from Liverpool will send them through as runners up. Scotland may seem overlooked here, as though they finished second in qualifying to Spain and beat them in their home ground in the process, they do not quite have enough to come out of this group nor even stop Switzerland from beating them and securing enough points to advance as a third placed team.
Group B
- Spain
- Italy
- Croatia*
- Albania
As stated earlier, Spain qualified first from their group, and have looked closer to the team that was truly unstoppable from 2008-2012. They have a great balance of youth and experience, while also having probably the world’s best midfielder in Rodri. Despite having less than stellar striking options, that hasn’t held Spain back before and they should top this group. Italy, the reigning champions have had an up and down time since that 2021 triumph. They then failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup, and finished second to England in their qualifying group for this tournament. However, Italian football has been performing excellently at club level and with many of this new, younger crop at the forefront of this I expect them to finish second. Croatia seem to be perennial dark horses. It seems every tournament they are favorably thought of but eventually written off, and then they end up making at least the semi finals. Such was the case at each of the last two world cups. Alas, in stark contrast to Italy, they still have held on to some of those stars, while others have not been replaced as effectively. They are still a very good and well coached side, with captain Luka Modric still world class as he approaches 40. Meanwhile young defender Josko Gvardiol just had an excellent debut season with Manchester City. However they just do not have enough to finish ahead of Spain and Italy this time although they will have enough to beat Albania and qualify as a third placed team. Albania can rightly feel even more hard done by than Scotland, as they actually won their qualifying group. However it was easily the weakest group, with Czechia and Poland finishing behind them. In another group they may have had a chance, but this group is far too talented for a fairytale run.
Group C
- England
- Denmark
- Serbia*
- Slovenia
One of the more straightforward groups. England is the class of the group and should qualify easily, even if they seem to have a habit of making life difficult for themselves. Denmark, beaten by England in the last Euro’s semis, aren’t quite as good as then but still have several quality players which should take them past Serbia and Slovenia. Slovenia have had an unfortunate but peculiar reality where both of their world class players of the generation play the same position and can’t play at the same time (goalkeeper). Samir Handanovic retired in 2023 after over a decade as an excellent goalkeeper for Italian giants Inter, leaving Atletico Madrid’s custodian, Jan Oblak as their lone world class player. The Serbians seem to have the opposite but not as stark problem, as their best players are both strikers; former Premier League ace Aleksandar Mitrovic and Juventus striker Dusan Vlahovic. This fire power didn’t help too much in the World Cup, as neither had great service to feed off of. This should however be enough to beat Slovenia and get them a spot as a third placed qualifier.
Group D
- France
- Netherlands
- Poland
- Austria
We already got a preview of sorts for the upper end of this group, as France and the Netherlands were in the same qualifying section. The Netherlands won 6 games and only lost 2…but sadly for them both were against France, and they were comprehensively beaten both times. They are however are in excellent form, having won both warm up games 4-0, and their defense might be the best on paper in the entire tournament. Alas, they don’t have quite the same strength in depth going forward, and just lost two starting midfielders to injury on the eve of the tournament (Frenkie de Jong of Barcelona and Teun Koopmeiners of Atalanta). They still will have enough to finish runners up to a France team that has been the best European team since the last Euros. Both Austria and Poland are a little unfortunate, as they may have even come second in other groups, especially Austria, who only missed out on first place in qualifying by one point to powerhouses Belgium. This relative and comparative strength will be both teams’ undoing, as they will take points off each other and neither will qualify as a third placed team.
Group E
- Belgium
- Ukraine
- Romania
- Slovakia
Belgium might be seen as perennial under-performers, as their golden generation only has a solitary third place medal at the 2018 World Cup to show for all their talents, and half , if not more of that team has now retired, leaving the rest led by Kevin de Bruyne of Manchester City to guide their young players. Controversially, perhaps the best goalkeeper in the world, Thibaut Courtois of Real Madrid was left out entirely as he missed all but the last month of the season through injury. He however, came back and kept a clean sheet in an excellent performance in the Champions League final as Real Madrid ran out 2-0 winners, showing no signs of rust. All that being said, this group is not particularly deep, and they definitely have the most talent by a mile and will finish first. Romania not only qualified first, but ended qualifying unbeaten, with a record of 6 wins and 4 draws. They however were in probably the weakest group of all with the likes of Kosovo, Israel and Andorra amongst their opponents, while Ukraine had the opposite experience, with Italy and England finishing ahead of them in their group. As a matter of fact, Ukraine only finished behind Italy on goal difference, showing their quality, and instead qualified via a playoff. This pick may be a ‘romantic’ one given the situation with that country, but I believe Romania’s excellent record flattered to deceive. They also won’t get out of the group as I expect them to either be held by Slovakia or barely beat them, sealing their fate as one of the two worst third placed teams.
Group F
- Portugal
- Turkiye
- Czechia*
- Georgia
Portugal on paper might have the best team in the tournament. There are legendary players still going such as the great Cristiano Ronaldo and Pepe, current world class players such as Premier League stars Bernardo Silva and Bruno Fernandes, and then excellent youth such as Pedro Neto and Antonio Silva. This talent is spread throughout the pitch as well, meaning they essentially have no true weak spots. Football isn’t played on paper however, but this is one of those times where the paper is right and they are easily the class of the group. Turkiye was the popular dark horse pick the last Euros (including from yours truly) and promptly got embarrassed from the opening whistle. This time around expectations have lowered, but with the relative weakness of Georgia and Czechia they should be fine. Czechia finished second only on goal difference to Albania in their qualifying group, while Georgia finished only 4th to squeeze into the playoffs. Indeed they only won twice in their qualifying group, beating bottom team Cyprus on both occasions. They have a couple stars in the Italian and Spanish top divisions but are ultimately just happy to be there and will also lose to Czechia, allowing for the latter to be the final third placed team.
R16
The round of 16 has some interesting seeding due to some of the third placed teams qualifying, but do not worry your heads with trying to figure out the matchups. According to my group predictions these will be the games going forward.
Game 1: Germany 2-0 Denmark.
Not much to say here adding on from earlier other than Germany should be comfortable against an average Danish side.
Game 2: Hungary 0-1 Italy.
Hungary again will be hard to beat, and this Italian side doesn’t seem full of goals, but quality usually shines through in tight games and it will here in favor of the Italians.
Game 3: Spain 2-1 Switzerland.
In a rematch of the Euro 2020 quarterfinal which was won on penalties by Spain, Spain have only gotten better while Switzerland have stagnated at best. It will still be a decent contest, but the score line will flatter a resilient Switzerland who will be well beaten on the day.
Game 4: England 3-0 Czechia
Again, not much to say here. Anything other than a comprehensive England win will be a shock.
Game 5: Portugal 3-0 Serbia
A closer 3-0 than the previous game, but a 3-0 beating is a 3-0 beating.
Game 6: Netherlands 2-0 Ukraine
The fairytale ends here for the Ukrainians, as they will put up a decent fight but just lack enough quality to truly trouble the Dutch.
Game 7: Belgium 1-2 Croatia
Here is my upset of the round. Belgium the perennial under-performers vs Croatia the perennial over-achievers. It seems a recipe for disaster for the former. I think the decisive thing there will be Belgium lacking their ace goalkeeper, who can win games on his own, with Croatia’s experience again knocking Belgium out of a major tournament like they did in the group stages of the 2022 World Cup.
Game 8: France 4-1 Turkey
Back to the boring one sided procession to the QFs by the favored team.
QFs
QF 1: Spain 0-1 Germany
Maybe something of an upset. But I expect a close and cagey affair with both teams not having too much elite talent up in the striker department. The hosts will get it done and continue Spain’s relatively mediocre performances at major tournaments since they won Euro 2012.
QF 2: Portugal 2-1 Netherlands
This one was hard to call, and I would actually have gone with the Netherlands as I think they could pull off an upset…if fully fit. Their two main lynchpin midfield injuries along with a third from earlier, Martin De Roon also of Atalanta, means there will be too much quality from the Portuguese midfield for them to overcome.
QF 3: Croatia 0-2 France
Just like in the 2018 World cup final vs France or the 2022 semi vs Argentina, Croatia’s fairytale run will end when facing a truly world class team. There is no shame in being truly outclassed by a French team who could probably get to this stage with a C team.
QF 4: England 2-1 Italy
In a rematch of the last Euro final and also of their two qualifying matches for this tournament, England will have one final laugh, outclassing the Italians in a tight match.
Semis
SF 1: Germany 0-2 Portugal
In an entertaining back and forth game, that Germany seem to typically win, it will be Portugal progressing to the final this time, with an early goal and then a late clincher on the counter attack. As good as this young Germany team is, and buoyed on by home support, Portugal is just too deep and too experienced.
SF 2: France 1-2 England
Unlike the previous round where I said injuries changed my prediction, this time I’m doubling down. England’s defense is significantly weakened without Harry Maguire, who always seems to do his best Clark Kent to Superman transformation when he dons his nation’s colors vs. his performances for Manchester United. Add to that the uncertain fitness status of other main centre back John Stones and main left back Luke Shaw, their defense suddenly looks weak. However, whomever manager Gareth Southgate chooses to plug in, in case of emergency, be it Marc Guehi, Kieran Trippier or Joe Gomez, there are enough capable deputies. England lost to France at the QF stage of the last World Cup 2-1, with Harry Kane missing a late, important penalty. The English gave the French a good game, and I think this time they will have learnt from their mistakes and get their revenge. It’s now or never for England as even Southgate himself alluded to recently: the team is so talented that if they don’t win, he will probably be out of a job.
Final
Portugal 1-1 England (5-4 pens)
I said it was now or never for England, and it will turn out to be yet again, never. In truly heartbreaking circumstances losing consecutive Euro finals on penalties, and losing another shootout to the Portuguese like they did in the 2006 World Cup. The English almost never seem to be confident at penalties, and I think without their full defensive compliment they will be unable to shut out the Portuguese. Then, Akin to Messi’s excellent “last dance” at the 2022 World Cup, Cristiano Ronaldo will be able to sign out on top with Portugal, scoring a clutch penalty as he has done countless times in his career.
This may be covering my tracks a little, but as stated earlier, I do think things would be different if the Dutch and English didn’t have such bad luck at the 11th hour. Especially with some of the English defender’s status’ still being up in the air at the time of writing. So with the current information I think the injuries will be too much of a handicap for those two teams or else we very might have well seen them in the final and a different winner entirely.