In the wake of the quarter and semi final draws for all three European cup competitions, I will be predicting the winner of each. In many cases, a favorable draw can lead to a fairytale story, with an underdog or a dark horse winning a competition, having previously been given no chance, until an easier path to the final opens up while the favorites all take each other out.
Firstly, let’s start from the bottom up, so the third tier competition, the Europa Conference league. Last season’s beaten finalists, Fiorentina of Italy have been drawn on the ‘weaker’ side of the bracket, avoiding tournament favorites, Aston Villa of England until possibly the final. Facing a team from the Czech Republic and then the winner of a tie between teams from Greece and Belgium can usually be seen as favorable, especially when the alternative is facing teams from England, France, and the notoriously hostile away environment of Turkey. That being said, although I have them reaching the final, I have them once again experiencing heartbreak at the hands of an English team. Last year they lost to West Ham, and this year I think Aston Villa is just a level above every other team in the competition and will win, especially with coach Unai Emery’s essential mastery of European football, given all his titles in the past. At least they won’t lose both finals this year, as I have predicted them to win the Coppa Italia final.
The ‘mid tier’ competition is a strange one now, as the field of the last 8 is what one would typically expect in the Champions League. This is because most of the teams here underperformed last season, or in the group stages of this season’s Champions League, and thus find themselves at the continent’s ’ B’ competition. In fact, when you exclude Real Madrid (who have won by far the most Champions Leagues with 14), the Europa League teams have won the competition more, with 16 wins between them, compared to the other 7 teams in the Champions League’s 13. Thus, it is expected to be high level competition from here on out, but there is still an ‘easier’ side of the draw thanks largely in part to how teams are performing this season. The overwhelming favourites, Liverpool, got a quite favourable draw, getting Atalanta in the quarters and then the winner of Benfica and Marseille in the semis. Atalanta is the weakest of the 3 Italian teams left, while Benfica is currently in the midst of some poor form, losing 5-0 to chief rivals Porto at the beginning of March, then barely scraping by Rangers of Scotland in the previous round. Marseille meanwhile, are all the way down in 7th in the French Ligue 1, and almost surrendered a 4-0 first leg lead to scrape through 5-3 with a 1-3 loss in the second leg in the previous round vs Spain’s Villareal, having been down 3-0 and being dangerously close to conceding a 4th. Compare this to the other half of the bracket, where you have the 2nd and 5th place teams in Italy( Milan and Roma), a resurgent West Ham team who won the Conference League last season and have made a recent deep run in the Europa League, and then the small matter of the runaway German Bundesliga leaders, Bayer Leverkusen, who are STILL yet to lose a single game in any competition this season. This includes breaking a German record in the process, a record that was held by an all conquering Bayern Munich team of a few years ago, that counts beating a Messi led Barcelona 8-2 as one of its accomplishments. Three of these four teams will knock themselves out, meaning the heavy favourites from the other half, Liverpool will only have to face one, in the final. As the manager of the team they swept aside 11-2 in the previous round (Sparta Prague) said, Liverpool shouldn’t really be here, “they are a Champions League team”. This experience and their overall caliber means I think they will have enough to beat whoever emerges from the other bracket, who I think will be Milan, setting up an epic final which is a rematch of the 2005 and 2007 Champions League Finals, as well as a final in which both teams have a combined 13 Champions League titles between them.
Last and certainly not least, the Champions League draw also produced a somewhat lopsided two halves of the bracket. In fact, this time all four of the most favored teams are together on one side, with the two most recent winners, Real Madrid and Manchester City facing each other in the quarter finals, with the winner playing the victors of the Bayern Munich vs Arsenal tie. As this is the Champions League however, there are no bad teams left, and the “weak” half of the draw still has Barcelona, PSG, Dortmund and Atletico Madrid. This could be PSG’s last chance at that long awaited maiden Champions League title before superstar Kylian Mbappe finally leaves in the summer, while Atletico Madrid just knocked out one of the favorites, last years beaten finalists and runaway leaders in Italy, Inter. I think PSG will have too much for Barcelona in their quarter final tie, before becoming the latest victim of Atletico Madrid’s incredible home form and gritty, hard to beat style. Atleti after making their third final in the past decade will face defending Champions Manchester City, who I think will just have too much for any of the powerhouses on their side of the bracket. Atleti lost their two previous finals in 2014 and 2016 to crosstown rivals Real Madrid, but won’t have to face their kryptonite this time thanks to City, and I think they hold on for a historic 1-0 win. Third time’s the charm.