Almost a year ago, I started a small series of “way too early” Paris 2024 athletics predictions. With the athletics programme set to get underway in a matter of days, it is the perfect time to revisit these and make my final predictions for select Olympic events.
Women’s 100m: When I did the first series of predictions, it was September, and Elaine Thompson-Herah had just run her fastest time (10.79s) in almost two seasons to conclude the 2023 season. This, thanks greatly in part to her having a new coach as well as her injury problems always seeming to abate during Olympic years made it a no-brainer to me to again predict her to win the blue-riband event at the Games. Alas, things didn’t turn out this way and instead it has been drama at every turn. She soon fell out with coach Shanikie Osbourne who had arrested poor form, and to couple with that, had even worse injury issues than before, meaning she wasn’t even able to try to qualify to defend her title. What will happen to one of the all time greats is a story for another time, but in her absence, the other two medalists from the last Olympic Games have had their own issues. Both Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce and Shericka Jackson have barely competed in the 100m this year, and after showing signs of regaining medal winning form at the Jamaican championships, both then had minor injury scares in their final races before the games. I want nothing more than to confidently predict Fraser-Pryce bowing out of the sport with a gold medal, or for Jackson to continue her trend of lowering her PB every year, but I just cannot do it without seeming too biased or high on “hopium”. In fact, the ‘other’ Jamaican woman in the 100m, Tia Clayton, reminds me so much of the situation surrounding Fraser-Pryce as a rookie back in 2008, that I even have more faith in her for a medal as it seems to have inklings of a lovely union between Deja vu and fate. I believe all 3 Jamaicans will run their fastest times of the year (in Clayton’s case this will mean a PB) but due to the rise of their main competitors, I see one medal at best for Jamaica here. Sha’carri Richardson has looked imperious, running 10.71 to win the US trials and she seemed to have more to spare. St Lucia’s Julien Alfred has been running 10.8s and below consistently as well and I think they will be the Gold and bronze medalists respectively. I think Shericka Jackson will be able to run a mid to low 10.7 and that will be enough for a silver, unable to quite get herself into PB shape due to her rough season. I think Clayton will just miss the podium and the legend Fraser-Pryce will be 5th in a season’s best, with that finish having its own air of Deja vu, in that the only previous time she finished off the podium in a Major Championship 100m was at the 2011 World championships in Daegu where she also had an injury hit season, and ended up 4th. My 100m prediction comes with one caveat however, in that Richardson seems to perform her best in major races when she is in an outside lane away from the spotlight. Perhaps this might be a thing of the past, as before last year she had yet to break through as a global champion, but until proven otherwise, she seems to tighten up slightly when directly beside her fiercest rivals. As a result, if she is in a middle lane unlike in her triumphant race in the 100m world championships final last year, Jackson may be able to take an unlikely gold.
Women’s 200m: Last year, I predicted Jackson to not only win the Olympic final, but to finally break the long standing 200m world record, such was her imperious form. Now, with the issues she’s had this year stated earlier, I must scale my predictions back just a little. I do not think she will be in record breaking form, but she was so ahead of the competition, that even at 75% I think she will still become Olympic champion, exorcising the demons of 2021 when she grossly miscalculated during her heat and did not even make the semi final. Gabby Thomas of the USA will again finish right behind her for silver (albeit a good deal closer this time) and with Thompson-Herah’s well documented struggles, I think Julien Alfred will make it a fabulous double bronze performance for St. Lucia.
Jamaica’s triple jump double still on: I predicted an almost ludicrous triple jump double for Jamaica last year. Not only was it unprecedented, but they did not medal in the men’s event, while getting a silver in the women’s. This silver, earned by Shanieka Ricketts preceded her first jump beyond 15m a few weeks later and inched her very close to a new national record. Despite entering such rare territory in the event, she was leaps and bounds behind the world champion, Yulimar Rojas, who only seems to compete to try and further her own world record, as she is so far ahead of everyone else. However, she struggled with keeping her jumps legal in last year’s world final and thus I boldly predicted her first loss since 2019 as a result of her not getting the ideal combination of a legal jump with a winning distance. My prediction seems to have aged somewhat well even though in pretty grim circumstances. Rojas is missing the entire season through injury and thus the event is as open as it has been in recent memory. I am still backing Ricketts to win the gold medal, but she is no longer the clear favourite after Rojas that she was last year. Dominica’s Thea Lafond has the only jump in excess of 15m this year, done when she became world indoor champion at the start of March, and Cuba’s Leyanis Perez Hernandez has been in exceptional form all season. I have Ricketts for gold, Perez for silver and Lafond for Bronze.
As for the men, I did mention that Jamaica did not medal, but that was only due again to the unfortunate cloud of injury hanging over a star athlete, this time Jamaica’s Jaydon Hibbert. His qualifying jump for the final would have been enough to win gold, but sadly he got hurt as he was taking his first jump in the final and had to retire, leaving the way clear for Hugues Fabrice Zango of Burkina Faso to become World Champion. He always saves his best for the big moment, so I think he will claim silver behind a man out for redemption in Hibbert, who will also clear 18m for the first time and become one of the farthest jumpers ever, having already broken the world junior record previously. The bronze will go to Jordan Diaz Fortun of Spain, who along with defending Champion Pedro Pichardo of Portugal cleared 18m earlier this year in the European championship final. Despite these tremendous jumps, the surface and the conditions for jumping were as ideal as can be in Italy, and thus I don’t think they are in any better form than the aforementioned pair. Diaz seems to have learnt how to get the better of Pichardo of late, as he did when becoming European champion recently, so I will back him for bronze despite him having less experience.
Edit: Not long after posting this, news broke that Shericka Jackson would be pulling out of the 100m to focus on the 200m, citing the need to take care of her body after doubling up so many times over the past few years. Rather understandable, given her injury scare not long ago. In light of this, instead of simply upgrading each athlete I predicted in the top 5 by 1, I now think that Clayton will elevate herself to a silver after now being the main focus of MVP track club, while Fraser-Pryce who continues to look better will get the bronze. This leaves Alfred in 4th, and Richardson still as the new Olympic champion.