With the world Athletic relays serving as the chief way for nations to qualify their relay teams for the Olympics, (14 teams for each of the 5 relays with 2 spots left to be decided by world ranking via times during the qualifying period from December 31, 2022- June 30, 2024) concluding in May, now is a good time to predict the eventual results in Paris come August. The qualifying period is still a couple weeks from being over, but the countries who have a legitimate shot at medaling who are not yet a lock are currently qualifying by ranking so these predictions will be made under the assumption that they have made it.
For the record, in the women’s 4×100 relay, there are only 15 teams currently on the World Athletics ranking page who made the Olympic standard, thus the only one not qualified officially but there on time (and due to the lack of other quality teams ) is Spain.
Meanwhile, in the women’s 4×400 relay, there are only 11 teams currently at the Olympic standard on the World athletics page, so all 14 from the World relays should complete the field.
Finally, for the mixed relay, the two teams qualifying by time currently are Czechia and Botswana, with times of 3:11.98 and 3:13.99 respectively. The teams closest to them on the outside looking in are Bahrain, Portugal and Hungary, who are all within a tenth of a second of them with times of 3:14.02, 3:14.06 and 3:14.08 respectively.
In the 4x100m, expect there to be yet another instalment of USA vs Jamaica for the gold medal. Jamaica are the defending champions, while the USA are the back to back defending world champions, with the other team taking the silver in each of the last three major championships. Ivory Coast, team GB and Italy are the next in line, but a good distance back on time, while the European trio of the Netherlands, Switzerland and Germany always perform well on the biggest stage and can’t be counted out. With the careers of stalwarts Murielle Ahoure and Marie-Josee Ta-lou winding down for the Ivory Coast, but with talented upstarts Jessika Gbai and Maboundou Kone, this might be the best chance ever for the Ivory Coast to win an Olympic relay medal. I think the bronze will ultimately be between them and the British, and as much as I would love a fairytale like upset where the Ivorians medal, I think the Brits will just edge them. As for the Gold, Jamaica’s once invincible-seeming team of Elaine Thompson-Herah, Shericka Jackson , Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce and Briana Williams seems to be a fleeting memory. Firstly, 4 time individual Olympic champion Thompson-Herah has not been in the same form since the Tokyo Olympics, and despite seeming to have rediscovered a small part of it towards the end of last season, recently hurt herself after running her slowest times in years and doesn’t look like she will be on the team. Jackson too has had a slow start to the season but at least seems to be rounding into form. The illustrious Fraser-Pryce however has yet to run this season so her status is still a mystery, though I expect her to be there come august, and finally Williams, like Thompson-Herah, has not been the same in years. Jamaica’s all-conquering and World record breaking u20 team from a couple of years ago haven’t all found the transition into the seniors to be a smooth one. Alana Reid and Tina Clayton, who both broke the 11 second barrier as teenagers have yet to do so as pros, while Serena Cole seems to have stagnated. The final member of that team, Brianna Lyston, is the fastest Jamaican this year at 10.91, but has just stunningly revealed she has shut down her season since competing on the grueling NCAA circuit since January and will miss this Olympic year. That leaves rising sensation Krystal Sloley as the only Jamaican available who has broken 11 seconds this year, with a 10.99 clocking. The top times in the word are littered with American names in contrast, with 3 of the 4 women to go sub 10.9 being American. The fastest woman in the world this year, Jacious Sears at 10.77, is currently injured, and with the rest of the times being 10.8s to 10.9s, it is not outside the realms of possibility that Jamaica could compete if Fraser-Pryce and Jackson rediscover the 10.6 form that they have had for the past few years. Jamaicans tend to notoriously peak right in time for the Major championships and start later than their counterparts, so I am going out on a limb and predicting a narrow Jamaican win in a thrilling race, with the top 2 both running 41.2, while the British will edge out the Ivorians with a 41.8 to a 41.9.
In the 4×400, as with the men, it’s almost as though the Americans have mainly raced the clock over the years. However, last year’s World championships was one such year where they did not win, and even more shockingly, did not even medal. They had a mishap in their heat and did not make the final, leaving the door wide open. The Netherlands, Jamaica and team GB were the ones who filled the void admirably and delivered an exciting race, with the Dutch taking the gold on the line thanks to the brilliance of their mercurial anchor, Femke Bol. This year however, with new Jamaican record holder Nickisha Pryce becoming the first Jamaican woman to break the magical 49 second barrier, and the likes of Stacy-Ann Williams improving all the time, I think they will have enough to hold off Bol’s charge this time, relegating the World champions to bronze, while the Americans defend their Olympic title. Look for team GB and Poland to give a strong challenge for the Podium. I think team USA will win in under 3:18, while Jamaica, and the Netherlands will run excellent times around the low 3:19 mark.
Finally, in the mixed relay, the Americans once again are in a class of their own, with a world record clocking to win the event at Worlds last year, and winning again at the World relays last month. The silver and bronze medalists from last month, the Netherlands and Ireland, just reversed positions at last weekend’s European championships, with Ireland winning the inaugural running of the event at those championships. At Worlds last year, it was team GB and Czechia taking silver and bronze respectively. This event is usually one of the more open ones as teams can change constantly, at least from the deeper and more traditional sprint nations. The USA are the only team who seem to not suffer any consequences as a result of this however, due to their incredible depth, as when teams such as Jamaica and team GB rotate, and save their best runners for the other relays and the individual races, their mixed relay tends to suffer. The likes of Poland, the Netherlands, the Dominican Republic and Ireland, all seem to have a set quartet, who yes, run more races than everyone else as a result, but always seem to deliver and it may serve as a lesson to the other nations to just always use your best if you want the best chance at all possible medals. With all that being said, I think the Americans are again the team to beat, but maybe not with AS dominant a victory as with the other 4x400m relay predictions. Ireland are a team on the up, while the Dutch and Dominican pedigree cannot be ignored, with the latter having won the only non American world title in the event in 2022, and being the Olympic silver medalists especially. I think the Irish will take second, building on their European triumph, while the Dominicans will get bronze despite their championship team changing slightly over the years. The Dutch after finishing third at the European championships will have to settle for 4th this time, while the Belgians and Italians, 2nd and 4th this weekend at the same meet respectively, will make things interesting. USA to win in 3:09.4, with Ireland and the Dominican Republic following in 3:09.8 and 3:09.9.
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