With the recent conclusion of the 2023 World Athletics Championships, and there being some key figures either missing or underperforming, I figured it was a good time to write the first entry of my early predictions for what will happen at next year’s marquee athletic meet.
- Elaine Thompson-Herah wins her third Olympic 100m title in a row: I had always backed Thompson-Herah to rediscover her form in time for the 2024 Olympics, as she always seems to find it in time for the biggest sporting event in sports after the FIFA World Cup. However, up until recently I was having my doubts. That was until she won the recent Brussels diamond league with a time of 10.84s, her fastest time since placing third at last year’s world championships. She has built a reputation of having difficult seasons in non-Olympic years, with only her breakthrough year of 2015 being a good non-Olympic season. Apart from her silver medal at that year’s world championships, her only other individual medal at World’s was the aforementioned bronze from last year. In both 2016 and the 2020 (2021) Olympics, she completed the sprint double in emphatic fashion, showing that she always knows how to bounce back. It seemed however, that there may have been a small chance that things might have gone differently this year, as her form dipped after she left the guidance of vaunted coach Stephen Francis, and the MVP track club. That, combined with further injury issues meant that she was only able to squeeze on to the Jamaican team for the 2023 World’s as a relay reserve, and she was unable to even break the 11-second barrier. This all changed when she linked up with former MVP coach Shanikie Osbourne, about a week before the championships started. Thompson-Herah herself stated that it is “similar stuff” to what she’s used to, having worked with her before and that it is just till temporary for now, but they will reconvene and discuss at the end of the season. With Thompson-Herah getting faster with each race under her belt, and if she remains under familiar coaching next season, she count return to her sub 10.6 100m and 21.5 200m form, which I believe will be enough to secure Gold in the 100m and silver in the 200m.
- Shericka Jackson wins her first 200m Olympic title: This leads nicely into my second prediction, which is that Jackson, will go into the Olympics having finally broken Florence Griffith-Joyner’s once seemingly unbreakable 200m world record. She has been laying assault to it recently, and now owns the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th fastest times ever over the distance. I predict that she will break this record at the Diamond League final in Eugene next weekend, as that track is historically one of the fastest in the world, and her great form. This is despite my prediction of Thompson-Herah’s return to form, and the continued excellence of American Gabby Thomas who I think will round out the podium. This event is more straightforward than the 100m, so I feel safer in predicting the whole podium this early on this occasion.
- Jamaica completes a historic Triple jump double: Now, I know this may sound like blasphemy to fans of the sport, predicting someone other than the essentially unbeatable Yulimar Rojas of Venezuela to win the women’s triple jump. Rojas has won 5 major titles in a row (4 Worlds, 1 Olympic), and has been unbeaten in any meet since September 2019. However, at the recently concluded World’s there was finally a chink in her armor. In the final, only the top 8 jumpers are allowed to have 3 further attempts (for a total of 6). Going into her third jump, she wasn’t even in the top 8! She squeezed into 8th with a modest jump of 14.33 metres (m). For context, her world record is over a meter further at 15.67m. Going into the final round she was still in 8th, unable to better than 14.33m until she unleashed a monster jump of 15.08m to steal the gold medal. Any jump over 15m is a massive jump, but to her it became so routine. This final however had several women jumping in excess of 14.8m, and 14.9m wasn’t even enough for a medal! With the increasing level of the competition, she Rojas is not at her imperious best and jumping distances that only she can, she may be undone by another woman who recently shown she’s capable of breaking the magical 15m barrier. Shanieka Ricketts recently jumped 15.01 to win the Brussels Diamond League to become only the 2nd Jamaican and 27th woman overall to surpass 15m. With Rojas showing that she may not be able to produce record breaking jumps under severe pressure, and the confidence of breaking through such a significant barrier from Ricketts, I predict that she will be able to just nick the gold in Paris, and even threaten Trecia-Kaye Smith’s Jamaican record of 15.16m. In the men’s equivalent, there is a similarly dominant jumper in Jamaica’s Jaydon Hibbert. He, unlike Rojas has yet to win a senior title as he is only 18 years old. However, like Rojas he has the ability to easily and consistently jump farther than anyone else, even the seasoned competitors at the highest level. He has the ability to be far below his best and win, as his ‘average’ jumps are distances that many men would call lifetime bests. He proved this by jumping the farthest distance at World’s this year with a huge 17.70 jump, in the qualifying round. This would have won the final as well, but sadly, Hibbert injured himself during this first jump and was unable to register a mark. I have full confidence in a hungry and determined Hibbert to be able to join the exclusive 18m club, as he as already come close with World U20 indoor and outdoor records of 17.87m and 17.54m already this year. If and when he jumps this distance at the Olympic games next year, no one else will be able to beat him.